FoxSports1 Vegas insider Todd Fuhrman dropped by CBS Sports Radio on Friday to preview all of this weekend’s sports action, including the NFL Draft.
Speaking of which, let’s clear something up.
For all the hoopla surrounding the draft, it’s rare for teams to drastically change their fortunes one way or the other based on one or two first-round picks. Thursday was no exception.
“You’re very rarely going to see impact players coming through in the draft,” Fuhrman said on The Doug Gottlieb Show. “Now if there was a trade – say, for example, Philip Rivers was shipped to Tennessee or you had something along those lines, Philadelphia (would) probably (be) much better suited to win now if you believe that Marcus Mariota was going to be the quarterback to perfectly orchestrate Chip Kelly’s system. But you’re talking about teams drafting quarterbacks, running backs (and) wide receivers that aren’t really going to take them from a four- or five-win football team and catapult them to 10 wins (and to the point where) we’re talking about them as dark horses to win the Super Bowl.”
Moving to the Kentucky Derby, Fuhrman is big on Firing Line, who opened with 12-1 odds to win.
“Firing Line is the horse I have toward the top of my field,” Fuhrman said. “I thought he would come out in that 7.5-, 8-1 range. You have a jockey in Gary Stevens who’s already won three Kentucky Derbies before. Dortmund, I’m not really buying, especially at that price. Yes, if it was 8-1, a much different dynamic. American Pharoah is an elite-level horse. I just don’t know if you feel comfortable betting him. But we may be talking about him having a chance to win the Triple Crown. I just don’t think you want a ticket on him to win it at 5-2.”
Looking at the NBA playoffs, the Los Angeles Clippers are two-point favorites to beat the San Antonio Spurs in Game 7 of their first-round playoff series Saturday. The Cleveland Cavaliers, meanwhile, are five-point favorites to beat the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 on Monday. If Kevin Love were in the lineup, Fuhrman said, the Cavs likely would have been favored by seven or seven-and-a-half points.
And then, of course, there’s “The Fight of the Century” between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao. The betting money is fairly even on the fight, but the tickets are not, as roughly 80 percent of bettors are taking Pacquiao.
“The public is going to come hand over fist on an underdog that they think (has) got a puncher’s chance,” Fuhrman said.
But does he? Does Pacquiao have a realistic shot to win?
“I really don’t (think so),” Fuhrman said. “I think Floyd – you look at his demeanor and the way he’s approached this fight, it hasn’t been the same chest-bumping bravado that we’ve seen. It’s that quiet confidence. All the reports out of his camp that the training has been at an all-time high.”
Doug Gottlieb, however, can’t stand when people rave about a fighter’s training. What else are they going to say? That Mayweather looks fat? Indifferent? Distracted? Afraid of fighting a southpaw? Come on.
“Well, every now and again, you do get stories that there’s a lingering injury or something along those lines,” Fuhrman pointed out. “We haven’t seen any of those break from either fighter here.”
As Fuhrman explained, there’s a lot of small money on Pacquiao, while a lot of the Vegas regulars are betting big on Mayweather. The rake for the fight could be anywhere from $50 to $80 million.
“To put that into perspective, that would be about two-thirds of the handle that we saw on the Super Bowl,” Fuhrman said. “That number may not seem like a ton, but it’s pretty impressive when you consider the Super Bowl not only has the game itself, but the myriad of props. You’re talking about a thousand different other offerings, whereas (with) this, you have five different potential outcomes, you have the over-under rounds prop and you have (the round in which either fighter will win).”
Fuhrman, if you’re curious, is taking Mayweather.
“He’s 47-0 for a reason,” Fuhrman said. “This is a legacy fight for him. Whether he wanted to take the fight or not, Floyd will be ready to go. Floyd will win this thing.”